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LATAM Conference - Mexico’s Long Road Back (Virtual Conference)

Mexico’s Long Road Back
• Mexico: LatAm’s second largest economy and equity market
• Macro conditions and government macro policies
• Trading liquidity
• Innovation
• Corporate Governance
• Value and a possible road back to recovery

Case Revisited

Back in early January 2020, as we internally discussed, reviewed and rushed to articulate our investment outlook for the year, Covid-19 had been on the public domain for no more than a few days and the first China-imposed lockdown in Wuhan, Hubei, was still weeks away.

Looking Beyond The Cover

For our cover we select an image that at a first glance could very possibly represent the future coming at us, at vertiginous speed, perhaps a complex circuitry enabling some sort of artificial intelligence; then, a closer look reveals an urban setting, buildings worth thousands of square meters of commercial real estate, a true relic - it would seem - in the current C19 era of social distancing, a look at the past receding from us at an equally dizzying pace.

Year In Review

2020 was a unique year – not that we needed to say this, explicitly. As the world struggled with the pandemic, the divergence between the economy and financial markets widened to a point never seen before. We alluded to this in our revised outlook for 2020, released in early April 2020. And it panned out, broadly speaking, in the way we thought it might. Overall, Aztlan’s three strategies had a good 2020, both in absolute and relative performance. Our general positioning being typically overweight in sustainable, free cash flow generating, new-economy stock picks helped a lot in the year.

LATAM Conference
Mexico Under AMLO: What Next?

Who is AMLO (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador), President elect of Mexico, won by a landslide, 53.1% of votes, Born 1953 (65 years of age). Takes office Dec 1, 2018 for a 6 year term.

LATAM Conference - Miami 2018

Trading in Latin America: Setting the Agenda
In small groups, delegates will discuss their biggest issues with trading in Latin America, with the goal of suggesting three questions that they would like answered in the course of this year’s meeting.

FLAIA Meeting of the Americas 2018

Meeting of the Americas is all about building new relationships, refreshing existing relationships and sharing information to enable capital flows," said Michael Corcelli, President and Founder of FLAIA.

LATAM Conference - Mexico at a crossroads

Fundamental drivers for financial markets in Mexico 2020
• Mexico and the MORENA regime
• Economic agenda and the 2020 budget
• Global economic slowdown, recession fears in the US and China
• Global trade and the new USMCA trade agreement
• The US-Mexico bilateral dynamics and the US political cycle
• Commodities and volatility in oil prices
• Domestic financial markets, new issue pipeline and investment opportunities

Outlook 2019

Overall 2019 shows supportive fundamentals for global equites but not without increased volatility. This will be particularly favorable for sound active strategies as compared to passive investing. Basically, valuations are close to average (i.e. not expensive) in places where macro conditions are still relatively stronger while the global risk outlook is just marginally higher, leaving some room to the upside.